Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, an influential economic analysis from the University of Chicago concluded that the likely benefits of moderate social distancing would greatly exceed the resultant costs. The New York Times and the Washington Post recently cited that study as evidence that the use of strict lockdowns to control the virus’s spread has been justified, and that current efforts to “open up” social and economic activity around the U.S. are dangerous and irresponsible. That is seriously misleading; the Chicago study is already out of date. More recent research supports the idea that the lockdowns should end.
This is the lead paragraph in an op/ed published in today’s Wall Street Journal. The op/ed is David R. Henderson and Jonathan Lipow, “The Data Are In: It’s Time for Major Reopening,” WSJ, June 15 (electronic) and June 16 (print).
Three things that delight me about it, in order:
1. It was published and I think it’s pretty important.
2. Although I haven’t seen the print version, a friend in the Eastern time zone tells me that it’s the lead op/ed. I’ve had over 50 op/eds in the Journal and this is only about the 4th or 5th time my piece has been above the fold.
3.The editor understands that the word “data” is plural.
That finding [that the benefit of the social distancing and lockdowns is only about $250 billion] casts major doubt on the value of lockdowns and even social distancing as a method of reducing the spread of Covid-19. While we can’t yet estimate a specific figure, the economic cost of social distancing and lockdowns will likely be more than $1 trillion. And that’s an understatement of the costs when you consider increased suicides and other social losses not captured in gross domestic product. For example, parents of young children have widely noted their kids’ gloomy outlook when not allowed to be with friends.
As always, I’m contractually obligated not to post the whole thing until 30 days from now. It’s on my calendar.