The Great Reconciliation?

What is the best way to reconcile the results for these three polls?

I’m tempted to just say “cognitive dissonance.”  The initial effort heuristic makes great sense, and the medical estimate seems about right.  But that in turn implies that past and current coronavirus efforts (public and private) are grossly excessive.  Indeed, do we even spend five hours per year fighting flu?  If so, why should we spend more than twenty five hours per year fighting coronavirus?  But almost no one feels comfortable with that relaxed attitude, hence the dissonance.

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