Slow Recovery Continues: Private Employment

ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline… Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (black), Bloomberg consensus (blue circle), ADP (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg and author’s calculations. The pattern sort of matches the mobility and engagement index the Dallas Fed produces (thru 9/26). Source: Federal Reserve Bank […]

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Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research

Ho hum, nothing to see here… Central banks sometimes evaluate their own policies. To assess the inherent conflict of interest, we compare the research findings of central bank researchers and academic economists regarding the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE). We find that central bank papers report larger effects of QE on output and inflation. […]

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