Business Cycle Indicators as of 1 October

Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for September as of 10/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ […]

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Now is an interesting time to visit New York City

And yes, you can find a parking spot in most parts of Manhattan these days, another novelty. Did I mention that my hotel room cost less than a third of what I’ve normally paid? I visited the Museum of Modern Art, operating under stringent visitor restrictions and with its tourist clientele mostly gone. I had […]

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How Certain Are We that Excess Fatalities Are Declining

When each Week, Peak Excess Deaths Gets Pushed Further Out Figure 1: Excess fatalities, 9/30 vintage (purple), 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations.   Figure 2: Covid-19 […]

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