Fatalities are likely rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 10/28/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 10/31 accessed 10/31/2020 and author’s calculations.