Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate: the ADP Report

ADP reports private nonfarm payroll employment today, +365K, below +650K consensus…:

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment fm BLS September release (black), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 11/4 (teal square), ADP October release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

While it’s well known that ADP private NFP does not well predict BLS private NFP, it is interesting that in September, ADP growth rate is essentially the same as BLS…