The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

By Kristalina Georgieva As G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet virtually this week, the world continues to climb back from the worst recession in peacetime since the Great Depression. The IMF recently projected global GDP growth at 5.5 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2022. But it is going to […]

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Government Support Is Vital as Countries Race to Vaccinate

By Vitor Gaspar, Raphael Lam, Paolo Mauro, and Mehdi Raissi The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating in many countries and uncertainty is unusually high. Decisive government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine rollouts, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. Most countries will need […]

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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Gita Gopinath In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination […]

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Global Policy Responses to Capital Flow Volatility

By Annamaria De Crescenzio,  Annamaria Kokenyne, Dennis Reinhart, and Julia Schmidt The COVID-19 health and economic crisis has once again focused attention on the fickleness of capital flows and the need to have an adequate policy toolkit to manage the risks that stem from these flows, while maximizing their benefits. A virtual workshop organized by […]

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A Greener Future Begins with a Shift to Coal Alternatives

By Christian Bogmans and Claire Mengyi Li As the world economy emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, the consumption of coal is expected to recover from its sharp decline during the pandemic. Demand for coal remains strong and helps to fuel economic development in emerging markets. Yet many countries, seeking a more sustainable future, have been […]

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How Artificial Intelligence Could Widen the Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations

By Cristian Alonso, Siddharth Kothari, and Sidra Rehman New technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, big data, and networks are expected to revolutionize production processes, but they could also have a major impact on developing economies. The opportunities and potential sources of growth that, for example, the United States and China enjoyed during their […]

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Pandemic Persistence Clouds Latin America and Caribbean Recovery

By Samuel Pienknagura, Jorge Roldós, and Alejandro Werner COVID-19 has hit Latin America and the Caribbean harder than other parts of the world, both in human and economic terms. The relatively large human toll is evident: with only 8.2 percent of the world population, the region had 28 percent of cases and 34 percent of […]

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s Difficult Road to Recovery

By Abebe Aemro Selassie Français The COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented health and economic crisis for sub-Saharan Africa. Within months, the spread of the virus has jeopardized years of development and decades-long gains against poverty in the region while threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa now face the […]

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A Long, Uneven and Uncertain Ascent

By Gita Gopinath The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with over 1 million lives tragically lost so far. Living with the novel coronavirus has been a challenge like no other, but the world is adapting. As a result of eased lockdowns and the rapid deployment of policy support at an unprecedented scale by central banks […]

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Monetary Policy for all? Inequality and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

By Niels-Jakob Hansen, Alessandro Lin, and Rui C. Mano Inequality in both advanced economies and emerging markets has been on the rise in recent decades. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated and raised awareness of disparities between the rich and poor. Fiscal policies and structural reforms are long known to be powerful mitigators of inequality. But […]

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