Excess deaths are down — below average — for those younger than eighteen

In the United States that is, link here, photo here: In other words, lockdown and shelter at home have limited some of the otherwise risky activities that young people engage in.  Excess deaths more generally seem to have reached a normal range, albeit at the upper end of that range: I wouldn’t want to call […]

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UK fact of the day

#COVID19 mortality in UK hospital patients has been falling steadily from >6% in March to ~1% now, with similar trends elsewhere. The reasons behind this pattern remain unclear, but #COVID19 Infection Fatality Rates will likely have to be revised downward. https://tinyurl.com/ybnlmkdz That is from Francis Balloux.  And again here is the source link.  And please […]

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Covid-19 India prize

It goes to the COVIN Working Group for their paper “Adaptive control of COVID: Local, gradual, and trigger-based exit from lockdown in India.”  As India ends its lockdown, the team, led by Malani, has developed a strategy to inform state policy using what is called an adaptive control strategy.  This adaptive control strategy has three […]

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Question about the Census and Census data

From an anonymous reader: You consume more economic research and data than anyone I can think of and you always ask great questions, so I wanted to ask: Do you have any experience working with census data and any thoughts about the kind of data, timeliness of data, etc, that you think is lacking from […]

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Database of 1,100 superspreading events

It is about time someone put this together, here are some summary conclusions: Nearly all SSEs in the database — more than 97% — took place indoors The great majority of SSEs happened during flu season in that location The vast majority took place in settings where people were essentially confined together, indoors, for a […]

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Political and social correlates of Covid-19 mortality

Do political and social features of states help explain the evolving distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We identify national-level political and social characteristics that past research suggests may help explain variation in a society’s ability to respond to adverse shocks. We highlight four sets of arguments—focusing on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political […]

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A new study of face masks

We use the synthetic control method to analyze the effect of face masks on the spread of Covid-19 in Germany. Our identification approach exploits regional variation in the point in time when face masks became compulsory. Depending on the region we analyse, we find that face masks reduced the cumulative number of registered Covid-19 cases […]

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Buy your apples from Abraham Aardvark

It is not just researchers and co-authors who benefit from having names close to the beginning of the alphabet: The names of traders should not matter if information is symmetric across traders. By examining export data from Chinese customs, we find persistent lexicographic biases in firm-level export records. Firms whose names are lexicographically earlier in […]

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