Profile of Youyang Gu, data scientist

In mid-April, while he was living with his parents in Santa Clara, Calif., Gu spent a week building his own Covid death predictor and a website to display the morbid information. Before long, his model started producing more accurate results than those cooked up by institutions with hundreds of millions of dollars in funding and decades of […]

The post Profile of Youyang Gu, data scientist appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Diversity in policing

In the wake of high-profile police shootings of Black Americans, it is important to know whether the race and gender of officers and civilians affect their interactions. Ba et al.overcame previous data constraints and found that Hispanic and Black officers make far fewer stops and arrests and use force less than white officers, especially against Black […]

The post Diversity in policing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years?

We argue that the most important statistical ideas of the past half century are: counterfactual causal inference, bootstrapping and simulation-based inference, overparameterized models and regularization, multilevel models, generic computation algorithms, adaptive decision analysis, robust inference, and exploratory data analysis. We discuss common features of these ideas, how they relate to modern computing and big data, […]

The post What are the most important statistical ideas of the past 50 years? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Monopsony it ain’t, rather output loss

We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing minimum wage hikes. Based on 2016-2020 hourly wage rates of McDonald’s Basic Crew and prices of the Big Mac sandwich collected simultaneously from almost all US McDonald’s restaurants, […]

The post Monopsony it ain’t, rather output loss appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

The effects of fluoride in drinking water

Water fluoridation is a common but debated public policy. In this paper, we use Swedish registry data to study the causal effects of fluoride in drinking water. We exploit exogenous variation in natural fluoride stemming from variation in geological characteristics at water sources to identify its effects. First, we reconfirm the long-established positive effect of […]

The post The effects of fluoride in drinking water appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Gender and the dynamics of economics seminars

This paper reports the results of the first systematic attempt at quantitatively measuring the seminar culture within economics and testing whether it is gender neutral. We collected data on every interaction between presenters and their audience in hundreds of research seminars and job market talks across most leading economics departments, as well as during summer […]

The post Gender and the dynamics of economics seminars appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Why Does Teacher Quality Matter?

From Mike Insler, Alexander F. McQuoid, Ahmed Rahman, and Katherine A. Smith, here is an apparently major result: This work disentangles aspects of teacher quality that impact student learning and performance. We exploit detailed data from post-secondary education that links students from randomly assigned instructors in introductory-level courses to the students’ performances in follow-on courses […]

The post Why Does Teacher Quality Matter? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Short selling and the price discovery process

We show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active. First, in a large panel of NYSE-listed stocks, intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow. Second, at monthly and annual horizons, more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices. Third, greater shorting flow reduces post-earnings-announcement […]

The post Short selling and the price discovery process appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Why U.S. Immigration Barriers Matter for the Global Advancement of Science

From Ruchir Agarwal, Ina Ganguli, Patrick Gaule, and Geoff Smith: This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network— representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge […]

The post Why U.S. Immigration Barriers Matter for the Global Advancement of Science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More

Money is good, at more margins than you might have thought

Past research has found that experienced well-being does not increase above incomes of $75,000/y. This finding has been the focus of substantial attention from researchers and the general public, yet is based on a dataset with a measure of experienced well-being that may or may not be indicative of actual emotional experience (retrospective, dichotomous reports). […]

The post Money is good, at more margins than you might have thought appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Read More