Estimating Potential Output

at CBO, is described in detail in this working paper. Also, here is a comparison of implied output gaps from various organizations, through 2016. Source: Shackleton (2018). Updated CBO projection here. Discussion of comparison to statistical filters in this post from a few days ago, which includes this graph: Figure 1: Cyclical component from Hodrick-Prescott filter […]

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Guest Contribution: “The Relative Economic Performance of the Trump Administration”

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Sam Williamson, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Miami University, and President of Measuring Worth. When the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter come out on October 29, they are likely to show a significant growth in the economy compared to the second quarter. […]

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Wall Street vs. Academics on Q3, Q4

Given apparent gridlock in Washington – that is the gap between the administration and Senate Republicans on phase 4 recovery package – Wall Street economists and academics see the recovery somewhat differently. From the Initiative on Global Markets/FiveThirtyEight Covid panel round 10 survey (released October 12). Figure 1: GDP actual (black bold), WSJ October survey […]

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Business Cycle Indicators as of 1 October

Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for September as of 10/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ […]

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Business Cycle Indicators, September 1st

IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for August employment  as of 9/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, […]

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