Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, Forecasts, Again

From CDC, Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project, and IHME: Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), IHME forecast (light red), all on log scale. Source: CDC accessed 8/7/2020 vintage, Covid […]

Read More

Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, Forecasts

From CDC, Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project, and IHME: Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red), IHME forecast (light red) . Source: CDC 7/29/2020 vintage, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 7/29/2020, […]

Read More

Is Florida In for a W?

I see Governor DeSantis say all is under control, as the Florida economy remains largely open. Economic activity as of mid-June did recover. But Covid-19 surges suggest a retrenchment in the future; the extent of this will depend on how much the epidemic progresses, and what the governor’s tolerance for fatalities/day is. First, the recovery […]

Read More

Nowcasting Q3

Believe it or not, we’re in the 3rd quarter. IHS/Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisers) informs me: Stall warning Key economic indicators covering labor markets, consumer spending, housing, and factory activity show that economic activity rose sharply over the May-June period, but alarming increases in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and most tragically deaths have led some states to […]

Read More

Inferring Covid-19 Fatalities

If you look at the CDC statistics without looking at the footnotes, you could be forgiven for mistakenly concluding the US was nearing zero Covid-19 fatalities. Covid-19 fatalities could be counted by referring to death certificates labeling cause as such. However, this method is subject to error due to misreporting. An alternative approach is to […]

Read More

Trumpian True Believers

A reader defends the Trump administration’s implementation of public health policies in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic: Trump never dismissed the pandemic, if you look at his full quotes rather than dishonest snippets. He has always followed the advice of his senior health policy officials. And Trump did a tremendous amount to manage the […]

Read More

Guest Contribution: “Covid-induced precautionary saving in the US: the role of unemployment rate”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy. Last months saw an unprecedented rise in the […]

Read More