I found this video by Ivor Cummins quite informative. Of course, I’m open to being told why he might be, or even is, wrong.
The data on Sweden and “dry tinder” are particularly interesting. Economist Dan Klein, Joakim Book, and Christian Bjornskov have written about this and he quotes it.
One thing I think Cummins brushed by unconvincingly is the difference between the USA Midwest and the USA Northeast, at about the 23:40 point. He says the shape is similar. He and I have a different view of the word “similar.”
One of the most upsetting parts is about how the lockdowns during the summer lengthened the time to herd immunity and therefore might themselves create an increase in the deaths in the fall and winter.