Business Cycle Indicators, September 1st

IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for August employment  as of 9/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, […]

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Academics on the Recovery

The IGM/Fivethirtyeight Round 7 survey is out, with discussion here. The poll results are here. Below are some forecasts and nowcasts to consider. Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), IGM/Fivethirty Covid-19 panel median (teal), Survey of Professional Forecasters mean (blue), and Atlanta Fed GDPNow of 18 August (red). Source: BEA 2020Q2 advance, IGM/Fivethirtyeight round 7, […]

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Congressional Research Service: “Fiscal Policy and Recovery from the COVID19 Recession”

From the summary of the document, which reviews the literature and current macroeconomic state of play. Some key findings are germane to the current intra-Republican party debate over how to proceed with the current recovery package. I know it is the triump of hope over experience to think they will accede to expertise, but here […]

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Business Cycle Indicators, 24 June 2020

Reverse radical or V-ish? Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), Bloomberg consensus estimate at 7/24 (blue gray), Goldman Sachs Employment Tracker estimate based on data thru 7/7 (sky blue), all log normalized […]

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Chart of the WeekUnemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis

By Ippei Shibata There has been much discussion in recent months about how workers who transitioned to working from home—and those who were deemed “essential”—are less affected by the layoffs and job losses brought on by lockdowns than are workers in “social” jobs that require closer human interaction, like restaurant workers. However, our new IMF […]

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Declining Confidence in Trump’s Economic Stewardship

Real interest rates are declining. Measured economic policy uncertainty is rising. Figure 1: Ten year constant maturity TIPS, % (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty (red, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assumes continues through July.,  Source: Treasury, policyuncertainty.com, accessed 20 July 2020, NBER. What about the stock market (and the VIX)? This […]

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An Improved GDP Outlook from Wall Street

The Wall Street Journal’s July survey results are out. The forecasted level of GDP is higher despite the deteriorating Covid-19 infection and fatality numbers. Figure 1: GDP, bn. Ch.2012$ SAAR (black), mean, from WSJ April survey (tan), May (green), June (red), and July survey (blue), all on log scale. Source: BEA, WSJ, various vintages, and […]

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The Hill: “Surging coronavirus cases raise fears of new lockdowns”

From The Hill: Sharp increases in the number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in states across the nation have some local elected officials considering pauses in reopening their economies. The rising number of cases are hitting hardest in Sun Belt states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. All four of those states reported their highest single-day […]

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