An Improved GDP Outlook from Wall Street

The Wall Street Journal’s July survey results are out. The forecasted level of GDP is higher despite the deteriorating Covid-19 infection and fatality numbers. Figure 1: GDP, bn. Ch.2012$ SAAR (black), mean, from WSJ April survey (tan), May (green), June (red), and July survey (blue), all on log scale. Source: BEA, WSJ, various vintages, and […]

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The Hill: “Surging coronavirus cases raise fears of new lockdowns”

From The Hill: Sharp increases in the number of coronavirus cases diagnosed in states across the nation have some local elected officials considering pauses in reopening their economies. The rising number of cases are hitting hardest in Sun Belt states like Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. All four of those states reported their highest single-day […]

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The American Economy Just Before Covid-19

The determination by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the American economy entered into recession in February 2020 was a surprise for many. The recession started before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic and a full month before President Trump declared a state of emergency. But is this early recession really surprising?

In a feature article to appear in the forthcoming (Summer) issue of Regulation, which will hit the newsstands before the end of this month and the web earlier, I tried to see what diagnosis of the “Trump economy” (if such a label can be used) could be made on December 31, 2019.

My article contains 9 figures that give a good idea of the evolution of the American economy during these three years. Some of the data may surprise you. My main question was: To which was the American economy prepared for an economic shock? I don’t want to spoil the suspense, but I think that the subtitle of my article is not badly chosen: “Three Years of Volatile Continuity.” But wait to see the charts.




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Guest Contribution: “Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Fabrizio Venditti (European Central Bank) and Giovanni Veronese (Banca d’Italia). The views expressed in this paper belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the Banca d’Italia and the European Central Bank. The oil market was one of the timeliest gauges of […]

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